Iran Military Forum

Yes you all got good points there . It is a question of numbers ( USD !! ) . Someone said before it's worth waiting maybe 5~10 years to get new engine and then build plane . I think it is better to have many plan . Lets call it plan A , plan B and plan C .
Lets also say we are not completely sure which plan will work well . Plan A = build SA fighter in present configuration  upto maximum number of say 3000 ( in six years time ) , this gives 5 :1 superiority against all carrier based aircraft . Plan B is to research into building SA fighter from start as a stealth plane and also convert old SA into stealth plane . Plan C is to build new plane with new engine when and if available with stealth capability .

We know plan A is almost certain to work against F-18 . However this force need to be supplemented with some high altitude planes to compensate for low ceiling of SA fighters . We assume plan B to be 50-50 likely to succeed , because Iran only recently managed to start making nano products and started programme of stealth conversion  and coverings . Plan C we can say may have 30% chance of success . Or at least lower expectation . It is probable that new engines may not work or be developed .

And I think the budget allow for all this to be done . We should certainly follow plan A and also plan B and C . Even if plan B and C may not work , we have plan A that we know will work for at least near future ( 5~10 ) years . But if we wait and allow indicision and inertia and false expectation to rule , and keep production level of SA fighter very low at 2 units per year then it may be too late to buy Russian when shooting start and the Russians may also want to carve up the spoils and side with the Yank .

Yes Aryana is right if it truly cost 15 Million (USD ) for SA fighter and it needs a 70 : 1 superiority against F35 and it is likely to come mostly across F35 in next 2~5 years in large numbers ( all 10 carriers equipped with it ) . And yes I agree you are right if Iran is 100% sure of making SA fighter stealth from ground up and if this will not cost more than 30 Million each and if this can happen within the next 2~5 years and if against F-18 or F35 it only need a superiority of  2 : 1 . And I am right if we are not sure ( less than 80% chance ) of a stealth plane within next 2~5 years and if  F-35 will not be deployed in large numbers in the next 2~5 years and if the main problem is 600 F-18 and if SA can  be made for ~2  million and if 600 SA can be made each year and a superiority of more than 2 : 1  is needed against mostly F-18 .

If for instance the chance of making a stealth plane is taken roughly equal to deploying advanced chaff and ecm ( Advanced chaff and ecm require roughly the same advances in technology in the same area as stealth plane . IE : electronics and materials ) and as you said the chance is good to high in near to moderate term . AND if the use of chaff and ecm roughly gives the same advantage as stealth THEN it makes more sense not to take any chance ( even if this is small ) with not having adequate air cover in the next 2~5 years , when non-stealth planes can become virtually stealth and they are likely to face non stealth planes . Also SA built now has just as much chance of stealth modification in the future . ( equal chance of developing stealth material and stealth coverings - same technology ) .

If the chance of attack in the next 2~5 years was low then why rush , I agree . If iran was Turkey or Malaysia . But Syria may be 6 months and Iran two years down the line . ( I think this is realistic ) .

Those images prove at the very least Iran can build a APQ-153 from scratch, we have no such evidence they have done the same with the APQ-159, paritially because we aren't even sure any Iranian F-5Es were delivered with that radar. If not, then the claims in the 90's of Iran expanding their F-5Es radar range to 64km a little suspect. If they did receive F-5Es with the -159 than that claim is quite possible. We just don't know for sure, the only evidence of Iran improving the F-5E's radar is those images of Iranian-built APQ-153 components.

Eagle,

I know from credible sources that Iran increased its F-4 radar range way back during the war time. I believe the range was increased to impressive range. Now, I did not know much about radars then and or do I now but the conclusion I can mke is that increasing the range of F-5 radar for Iran, w/o talking specifics, is true and completely withing its capabilities.


Catsoo

how many saqehs are there in the iranian inventory as of now?