Iran Military Forum

Since we have threads for several other wars I think we should also pay attention to this one. I have been following it closely for about one and a half-year and some short history explaining the map:

I'll start by posting a map of how the situation has developed between 2006 when the Islamic Courts Union was created and now.

2006: As you see Somalia is first very divided, as the ICU defeats the ARPCT (an alliance of CIA-backed warlords) it conquers most autonomous republics like Hiiraan, Jubaland, South-West Somalia and also takes over Pirate strongholds. The TFG is besieged in the district of Baydoa (the one which is blue fromof the beginning) until Ethiopians occupy the regeon in between their border with Somalia and the city. In December 2006 Ethiopia launches a US-backed invasion and defeats the ICU. The invasions starts on December 20 and ends on January 12 as they take the Muslims' last stronghold: Ras Kamboni (which is a city located on the most South-West point of the country).
2007: The core of the ICU's military wing was a group led by notorious warlord Sheikh Adan "Eyrow", he continued operating it as an independent insurgent group called Harakat al-Shabaab Mujahedeen (HSM), more commonly known as al-Shabaab. Some elements of the ICU regrouped with leaders + non-Muslim opposition to the TFG military regime and created the Alliance for the Re-liberation of Somalia (ARS) which is led by Sheikh Hassan Dahir Aweys (Somalia's main Muslim leader) and his protoge Sheikh Sharif Ahmed, a schoolteacher who Aweys made chairman of the ICU. Other notorious warlords such as Hassan "al-Turki" create their own insurgent groups such as the Ras Kamboni Brigades.
2008:The insurgents start seizing territory, the government has in the meanwhile lost most of it's territory to different clans and tribes operating completely independently from the government. by August they admit that majority of the country is under Muslim control again. By January 2009 Ethiopians announce their withdraw and al-Shabaab seized Baydoa, the only city the government controlled during the last 18 years. Ethiopians however, while withdrawing, seize control of the border regeon and slowly pull out. Meanwhile HSM is routed from the Central regeon by a government alligned Sufi group called Ahlu al-Sunnah Waljama'a (ASWJ).
2009: The ARS splits in two as Sheikh Sharif leads his own branch which reconciles with the government. The 225 member parliament is expanded with 200 ARS members and Sheikh Sharif is elected president by the parliament. Sheikh Aweys's branch of ARS merges with Ras Kamboni Brigades, Jabathul Islamiyah and Mu'askar Anole into Hizbul Islam (HI) and together with al-Shabaab they vow to continue fighting Sharif Ahmed's regime. At the beginning of the year pro-Ethiopian warlords controlling parts of the South West vow to re-take Baydoa but are crushed by a HSM invasion. In may an offensive get's insurgents control over most of the capital read on wiki for further information about that battle. An offensive in the central regeons leads them to seize control over all of the ARS controlled area leaving the government only in control of parts of Mogadishu.
Then in september war breaks out between HSM and HI, however HSM quickly destroys HI in the Southern and central regeons leaving them only in control of Beledweyn and Ras Kamboni. During this period however ASWJ captures parts of the Central regeon and many ex-TFG and ex-ARS warlords join ASWJ which is seen since end 2009 as the alternative tot he government. In the last picture all of the blue area shown (except in the capital) is ASWJ.
2010: ASWJ launches an offensive on Beledweyne resulting in HI allowing HSM to flood the city with their militants to defend it. ASWJ also launches an offensive on Elbur (the only town in Galgugud (ASWJ's home province) which HSM holds) but though they manage some initial succes both offensives fail. In February 2010 Hassan Turki leaves HI and joins HSM leaving HI only with some minor presence in the capital Mogadishu and Beldweyne.

Here's a picture of Mogadishu developments in 2009:

Notorious Muslim Guerrilla Leader Joins Al Shabaab

A top Somali Muslim official has led his group to join Al-Shabaab, Somalia's hard-line insurgent group.

Sheikh Hassan Abdullahi Al-Turki, Hizbul Islam's second in command who also leads Raskamboni Brigade which controls large parts of southern Somalia inked agreement with Al-Shabaab to merge the two forces.

The agreement was jointly signed by Al-Turki and Al-Shabaab's enigmatic leader Sheikh Muqtar Abdurahman Abu Zubeyr in Somalia's southern city of Baidoa.

 "In this agreement, we intent to invite other groups in the Hizbul Islam and make our war, a global jihad," said Al Shabaab member Sheikh Fu'ad Mohammed Khalaf, who spoke at the ceremony.

He added that the unification of the two forces is to form an Islamic state in Somalia and also liberate the East African region from the 'Christian rulers'

Sheikh Mohammed Dulyaden, a Raskamboni commander, said his group is ready to take a crucial part in making sure that an Islamic state is realized in Somalia.

The remaining leaders of Hizbul Islam, which has been in loggerheads with Al-Shabaab are yet to comment about the latest development that will have huge impact on its rule in the southern Somalia.

The two groups have been involved in fierce fighting over the control of southern towns including Kismayo during the month of October 2009.

http://allafrica.com/stories/201002020211.html

Mogadishu Shelling Claims 16 Lives

At least 16 people have been killed and several others wounded after heavy fighting rocked Somalia's capital, witnesses and officials said late Sunday evening.

Artillery shells fired from insurgent stronghold into government-controlled killed and responds from African Union troops killed at least 15 civilians and wounded 60 others.

 "The wounded are mostly women and children, and we have evacuated them from several neighborhoods," said Ali Muse of Mogadishu's ambulance services, adding that the wounded have been admitted in two hospitals in the capital.

"The residents of the districts which have been shelled, have started fleeing because of fear for more shelling," said a resident, who requested not to be named.

The attacks come amid reports that the government is planning to launch large offensive against the rebels, which controls much of the capital's northern districts.

The capital has been the scene of deadly shelling and bombardment, which the civilians in most case bear the brunt.

http://allafrica.com/stories/201002020213.html

BTW, there is an African Union "peace-keeping" force in the capital called AMISOM, the government needst them to stay in control of the last bit of Mogadishu but they are the main reason for continued insurgency as most people view them as illegal occupiers like previously the Ethiopians.

Presidents Urges African Union to Contribute More Peacekeepers

Somalia's embattled president Sheikh Sharif Sheikh Ahmed said his government has done substantial efforts in changing the scenario in the war-torn country, thanking African Union peacekeeping troops for its help while urging International Community to do more for his government.

In an address to the AU summit in Addis Ababa, the Ethiopian capital, Ahmed said opposition groups have refused to join the peace and reconciliation process.

"AMISOM troops plays central role in Mogadishu's peace, and also helps the government in the fight against the armed opposition, which oppose peace and statehood," he said while adding that Al-Qaeda is involve in the fight against his government.

Ahmed said the country's military is prepared and reformed to make sure that it plays crucial role in restoring peace and stability.

He asked the troop contributing countries to complete peacekeeping troop's deployment as soon as possible and also urged Arab League to train the government forces, arguing that the situation in the war-torn country is unpredictable at the moment.

On humanitarian issues, President Ahmed urged international humanitarian aid agencies to return and help the impoverished population, which is in dire need of assistance.

Economically, he said his government is doing well in terms of making sure that the country realizes economic growth, citing also the country's 2010 budget.

Ahmed has recently celebrated first anniversary since taking office in 2009 and many, including Somali lawmakers are critical of his government's achievement, which they termed it as minimal compared to previous governments.

http://allafrica.com/stories/201002030131.html

Kenya Considers Deploying Troops to Country - FM

Kenya's Foreign Affairs Minister Moses Wetangula said his country is contemplating about sending peacekeeping troops to the neighboring war-torn Somalia.

Wetangula told reporters in Addis Ababa, the capital of Ethiopia that they can't be sit back and watch as Somalia disintegrate into further chaos.

"Somalia is our neighbor and its stability is our responsibility because the fire burning there is also reaching us," said Wetangula.

Kenya's president Mwai Kibaki who addressed AU summit in Addis said the escalating conflict in Somalia is affecting his country, pledging support to end the conflict.

However, Nigerian Foreign Affairs Minister said his country is not ready to deploy troops to Somalia at the moment, arguing that there is no peace to keep.

Djibouti, a neighboring country that plays crucial role in Somalia's peace and reconciliation process, said it's deploying some 450 troops to join the 5,300 AU peacekeeping forces, which are mainly Uganda and Burundi.

Somalia has been without a central government since 1991 when Mogadishu warlords toppled the regime of President Mohammed Siad Barre.

http://allafrica.com/stories/201002030130.html

Overnight's Tragedy Fire in Mogadishu Leaves More Than $10,000, 300 Fuel Tanks

Overnight's tragedy fire in Bakaro, the biggest market in the Somali capital Mogadishu has left more than $10,000 dollars and 300 fuel tanks according to the Somali businessmen on Wednesday morning.

Reports say that the fire came as mortar shell hit on a petroleum section of the market which caused to spread further and devastate several other sections of the market

Witnesses told reporters that the fire started at 7:30 PM local time on Tuesday evening and caused the casualties of more than 300 barrel of fuel which burnt in the inferno. It continued about four hours.

More of the Somali businessmen who could see their properties burning and screaming for help could be seen gathering to the areas of the blaze

On e of the Somali businessmen told Shabelle radio about $10,000 was also burnt in the fire adding that most of burnt properties were the petroleum tanks in Bakara, which is the only centre for the properties of the Somalia people.

Hundreds of the Somali people are struggling to put out the fire.

Most of the people in the capital could also see the flames of the fire in any direction of the capital

Shabelle's reporters had rushed to the burning areas of the market where the fire was continuing overnight and covered that there were more attempts which lastly achieved to put out the fire.

http://allafrica.com/stories/201002030422.html

^^The mortar was fired by the AU, Bakara is controlled by insurgents, so they wouldn't shell their own territory.

Muslim Official Defends Decision to Join Al-Shabaab

A top Somali Muslim official who recently joined Al-Shabaab says he took the decision to unite all the Muslims fighting in war-torn Somalia.

Sheikh Hassan Abdullahi Al-Turki, an immediate former Hizbul Islam's second in command, who also head his own Raskamboni Brigade confirmed the ditch to Al-Shabaab in a press conference held in southern city of Baidoa.

"My aim is to play a key role in the unification of all Mujahidins and Muslims so that they can repel those who want to destroy them. So, I urge all of them to unite and become one entity," said Sheikh Turki.

He also sent a special message to the remaining Hizbul Islam officials, urging them to join the Al-Shabaab umbrella.

Sheikh Turki was reacting to sentiments from Hizbul Islam leader Sheikh Hassan Dahir Aweys who disapproved his decision to join Al-Shabaab, whom he accused of violating agreement with his group.

Al-Shabaab and Hizbul Islam was engaged in deadly battle over the control of southern border towns in recent months and the latest development is expected to further add insult to the injuries.

http://allafrica.com/stories/201002050129.html

Ex- Deputy Leader of Hizbul Islam Explains His Joining to Al-Shabab

Ex- deputy leader of the Islamic organization of Hizbul Islam Sheik Hassan Abdullahi Hersi known as (Sheik Hassan Turki) has Thursday explained more about his joining to Harakat Al-shabab Mujahideen officials.

Sheik Hassan Abdullahi Hersi (Sheik Hassan Turki) is a famous Somali Muslim leader who was leader of Raskanboni group and the deputy chairman of Hizbul Islam organization before joining Harakat Al-shabab Mujahideen.

The official talks to journalists for the first time since he united with Harakat Al-shabab Mujahideen and explained more on how he became one of the Islamic administration of Harakat Al-shabab Mujahideen saying that he was member of meeting happened in the Baidoa town about 250 kilomtres south of the Somali capital Mogadishu adding that he signed that he had formally joined to Al-shabab.

"I was true that I had joined Al-shabab, the main aim was to unite the Mujahideen (Muslim fighters) to unite with Muslim fighters in the world, it was right that I was member of the officials who met in Baidoa town. I signed articles agreed in the town with Al-shabab," said Sheik Hassan Turki.

Sheik Hassan Turki asserted that he was a witness of the meeting in Baidoa town calling for all the Muslims to unite to defend the Islamic region and to have relation with Muslims in the world.

The statement of Sheik Hassan Turki comes as Barre Ali Barre, the commander of Raskani forces said recently that those who joined to Harakat Al-shabab Mujahideen did not represent them.

http://allafrica.com/stories/201002050131.html

Government Forces Ready for War Against Rebels

Somalia's embattled government is reportedly preparing its troops in a latest offensive against the powerful insurgents in the restive capital Mogadishu, sources told Garowe Online.

Somali government officials said the offensive is led by experienced troops' commanders, who are up to the task of clearing the insurgents from the capital

"The TFG forces are in the front line, they are ready to attack Al-Shabaab and Hizbul Islam positions in Mogadishu," said a top government official, who requested anonymity.

Somalia's Agriculture Minister Mohamed Ibrahim Habsade, who is currently in Mogadishu confirmed the government plans, saying this year will be of success for the weak TFG as it plans to take the control of the regions in the war-torn country.

"We are planning to kick out insurgents, who are linked to Al-Qaeda, from the regions because they have refused to take part in peace and reconciliation talks," he said.

On the other hand, Al-Shabaab's spokesman Sheikh Ali Mohammud Raghe aka Ali Dhere said the TFG is known for declaring offensives against his group but vowed that Al-Shabaab will defend itself from any attack.

However, a government official said the latest offensive will have huge impact on the civilians.

"The war will affect every corner of the country and the government forces have vowed to liberate the people," said the official.

Hundreds of residents have started fleeing from their homes for fear, joining thousands others in the outskirts of Mogadishu.

Early January, Somalia's Prime Minister Omar Abdirashid Sharmarke told a section of the media that his government, which only control pocketful of blocks in Mogadishu, was planning to rout out the insurgent from the capital within a month but remained verbal ever since.

Even though African Union troops who are based in the capital have downplayed their involvement in the government plans, reports that reached GO suggest otherwise.

http://allafrica.com/stories/201002050130.html

President Comes Under Attack

At least 2 people are reportedly killed and few others injured after insurgents carried out attack on Somalia's President's plane that landed in Mogadishu's Aden Adde International airport.

President Sheikh Sharif Sheikh Ahmed was returning from an official visit to Ethiopia on Wednesday when insurgents fired mortars at his plane, according to reports.

However, African Union peacekeeping troops which guard the airport returned the fire. no reports of casualty from the returned fire of AU troops.

In Addis Ababa, President Ahmed attended the African Union heads of government summit.

Ahmed also held talks with Ethiopian Prime Minister Meles Zenawi, which they discussed peace and security situation in Somali and regional issues.

Meles commended the TFG president for his commitment working in unstable situation in the country, urging him to focus also on political works besides undertaking activities to ensure peace and security in his country.

"Ethiopia is ready to help TFG so as to succeed in the fight against the opposition armed groups that have links with Al-Qaeda," Meles said.

On his part, President Ahmed said his government is planning to alaunch offensives against Al-Shabaab and Hizbul, the two main Somali rebels, whom he described as anti-peace.

Somalia's president also held talks with some other African leaders to brief about the situation in the war-torn country.

The summit was concluded with promise to help Somalia, which has been marred by years of civil war, achieve the elusive peace.

http://allafrica.com/stories/201002050132.html

What outcome in Somalia do you think is the best situation for Iran?

Though currently the Iranian media (and to some extent the gov't) seem more pro-government since Sharif Ahmed became president, the government is alligned with America while the insurgents are alligned with Iranian-ally Eritirea. Also despite claims by the US of insurgent links with al-Qaeda they have always denied this, saying they are both part of a struggle against American imperialism but further have no links with each other at all. Also the insurgents sent fighters to Lebanon in 2006 and to Yemen in 2009.

I believe victory for the insurgents will be good for Iran and good for the Somali people as it will finally bring stability. Everyone knows the government is weak and incompetant and the TFG-ICU alliance (which had high extectancies a year ago) proved to be a major failure. Some point to ASWJ as the only group to bring security to Somalia, however I think HSM is the only group which can do it. And majority of Somalis are willing to live under Shari'a law in return for peace and stability. Also analysts are becoming increasingly critical of the claims by the US and the Somali gov't that HSM lost most of it's support since the Ethiopian withdraw and is not popular amongst the people since they have been capable of taking over majority of the country and are able to control all these regeons and completely stabilise them while the gov't isn't able to control anywhere or hold on to any territory and whenver they do it turns into a warzone.

Mogadishu Residents Flee Planned Govt Offensive

Hundreds of residents have started fleeing the embattled Somali capital of Mogadishu as government forces and hard-line militant fighters prepare for an all out war.

The massive exodus was witnessed in the areas under the control of the militants where residents expressed great fear over the imminent battle between the two sides.

"We are fleeing from Huriwa area, which we lived in since the withdrawal of Ethiopian troops early last year. We heard that the area is under attack and preparing to leave for the central parts" said a lady who added that at least 10 families have left the area on Saturday.

The areas which saw massive exodus include the northern districts such as Hodan, Wardhigley and Yaqshid, which are largely under the control of the militants.

Al-Shabaab has deployed thousands of its fighters in the neighborhoods in preparation for the planned government offensives.

Meanwhile, Somalia's pro-government armed group Ahlu Sunnah Wal-Jamaa announced that it is planning to carry out attacks on the southern region of Gedo in the coming days.

Sheikh Abdirahman Al-Azhar said the plan is to oust Hizbul Islam and Al-Shabaab from the region, adding that recent attack on border town of Balad Hawa was test run to determine the military capacity of their rivals.

"We must take the control of the region and liberate the people. The recent attack on Balad Hawa was a test. We discovered the ability of our enemy," he said.

Al-Azhari however refutes reports that his group is getting backings from Ethiopia, saying the group's fighters are well-trained and equipped.

"We don't receive any help from neighbours, Kenya and Ethiopia, which we can cross their borders whenever we want. We are getting the backing of the residents who welcome our initiatives," he noted.

His sentiments come after government officials based in Dolow, a Somali border town near Ethiopia vowed to recapture the southern regions of Jubba from Al-Shabaab.

Somalia has been without an effective central government since 1991 when warlords toppled the regime of President Mohammed Siad Bare.

http://allafrica.com/stories/201002070003.html

TFG-commander and 50 fighters defect to al-Shabaab

Harakat Al-shabab mujahideen officials have Monday displayed an officer from the Transitional Federal Government (TFG) and more weapons in the Somali capital Mogadishu.

Sheik Ali Mohamud Rage (Sh. Ali Dere), the spokesman of Harakat Al-shabab Mujahideen who was present at Gulwadayasha building, the area where both the officier and weapon formally displayed today said that more than 50 soldier from the transitional government from their military positions joined them adding that they had welcomed them greatly and dealt with them with good manner.

The spokesman said the performed officer was called Bashi Ahmed who he said that he was member of the former national forces of Somali government in the are of ousted president Mohamed Siad Barre, but was current serving as transitional federal government officer in the capital.

He said that he was one of the troops in Na'na'a factory, a base for the transitional government of Somalia in south of Mogadishu.

Bashi Ahmed who also talked to the journalists said that he was trained in Djibouti adding that the authorities of the transitional government did not give any rights to its troops asserting that he decided to leave his colleague and joined to Harakat Al-shabab Mujahideen.

Sheik Ali Mohamuded Rage said that Mr. Ahmed understood more about the decisive actions of the TFG calling for the others soldiers to leave from the government and join them pointing out that the government and AMISOM were those who often plan to deceive the Somalia people.

The officials also displayed 50 AK-47, mostly automatic hand guns used saying that 50 other government troops from the transitional government with the weapon had joined the Muslim fighters of Harakat Al-shabab Mujahideen urging the fighters to redouble their fighting against the allied troops of the government and AMSIOM stressing that they would once be out of the country.

http://allafrica.com/stories/201002081227.html

And more fighting

Nine Gov't Soldiers Killed in Separate Incidents

Infighting Somali forces have killed at least four and injured 3 others in the capital as explosion targeting government troops claim five soldiers.

The fighting between the government forces, comprising of military and police officers was caused by argument over the ownership of a gun, according to government officials.

"I have seen the dead bodies of at least four soldiers and injuries of three others. The two sides exchanged fire," said an eyewitness.

It took the intervention of senior commanders to calm down the two forces. The Somali police spokesman said investigations have been launched into the incident.

Meanwhile, a roadside bomb killed five government soldiers and wounded seven civilians at Hamarjajab neighborhood in the southern part of the city. The Al-Shabaab group was quick to claim responsibility for the attack in a statement.

It said the explosion was a revenge for the death of civilians in the capital.

The capital is currently experiencing high tension over the much-awaited government offensive against the rebels.

http://allafrica.com/stories/201002110026.html

Few Minutes Shelling Leaves More Than Ten Dead, Injuries 15 Others in Mogadishu

More than 10 people have killed and 15 others wound after heavy shelling targeted to more different neighborhoods in Mogadishu with in few minutes, witnesses told Shabelle radio on Wednesday.

It unclear the real cause of the shelling.

Most of the mortars were landed on Wadnaha street that passes beside Bakara, the biggest market in the capital and halted the movement of the business in the market according to witnesses and businessmen adding that more shells hit into the market killing 7 people and injuring 8 others as the shelling continued.

One witnesses told Shabelle radio that a mortar had landed on traffic civilian at the bus station of Bakara market killing one woman adding that it had destroyed whole the vehicle.

"three people were killed at General Da'ud intersection in Mogadishu as mortar shell landed there, others were injured," said one witnesses.

More other areas in Mogadishu as Hodan, Hawl-wadag, Wardigley, Heliwa, Yaqshid, and several other districts in the capital thought the real casualties of those areas are unclear so far.

It is also unknown the real casualties of today's deadly shelling so far and it might be more than the number covered and it comes as there had been military movement between the two rival sides in the Somali capital in over the past few days.

We shall keep updating you for any further details about the news as soon as possible or

http://allafrica.com/stories/201002110044.html

Al-Shabab Says Its Fighters Targeted Blasts to Amisom's Base in Mogadishu

The officials of Harakat Al-shabab mujahideen have Wednesday said that their fighters targeted explosions to the main base of the African Union troops (AMSIOM) in Mogadishu and killed officers, just as the spokesman of the African Union troops denied claims.

Sheik Ali Mohamud Raghe, the spokesman of Harakat Al-shabab Mujahideen told reporters that their fighters targeted explosions to Halane, the military base for the AMISOM troops in the Somali capital Mogadishu on Wednesday afternoon adding that they had killed several officers of AMISOM troops there in southern Somalia.

The spokesman of Harakat Al-shabab Mujahideen said that the blast was carried out tactically by their forces at a hole very close the shore around the airport where the officers of AMISOM were enjoying stressing that they had reached victory over their attack.

"We are congratulating to the Somali people that Harakat Al-shabab Mujahideen carried out great explosions to AMISOM's base at Halane and killed more of their men. We shall explain how the blast was planned at later," said the spokesman of AMISOM.

On the other hand the spokesman of AMISOM troops major. Brigye Bahuko who was speaking to Shabelle radio had denied that any explosion had been targeted to any of their bases in the capital saying that Harakat Al-shabab Mujahideen use its fighting for the media.

"kkkkkkkkkkkkkk, we can point out that statement as madness, because the people saying that they had attacked Halane base were indulge ones. They used Mirow (kat). It is false that we have been attacked. No casualties had reached to our forces," said AMISOM's spokesman

Sheik Ali Mohamud Rage had warned to the Burundi and Uganda whose troops are in the country to withdraw from Somalia or else will be returned back to their countries being bodies.

Some of the residents around airport whom we had contacted told Shabelle radio that the sound of big explosion could be heard the side of Halane compound, the main base of the African Union troops AMISOM in Mogadishu.

http://allafrica.com/stories/201002110045.html

Death Toll of Yesterday's Shelling Rises 30, 50 Injuries, People Flee From Mogadishu

Death toll of yesterday's deadly shelling has risen to 30 and the injuries of more than 50 others, just as the remained residents started fleeing from their houses in Mogadishu, witnesses and officials told Shabelle radio on Thursday.

Heavy shelling that started on Wednesday afternoon and continued until overnight and targeted to more different areas in the Somali capital Mogadishu has caused more civilian casualties of deaths, injuries and loss of properties.

The bodies several people were found on Thursday morning in parts of Hodan and Hamarweyne districts in the capital

Ali Muse, the official of the emergency responders told Shabelle radio that they took more wounded people since the shelling begin yesterday afternoon saying that they had seen the bodies more people in the areas they were collecting the wounded people.

He said most of the dead or wounded people were civilians.

He expressed concern about the big Lorries which often blockade the streets as they carry the injuries calling for them to open the way soon as possible when they heard the sound of the ambulances.

The African Union troops AMISOM were accused the responsibility of yesterday's bombardment, but the spokesman of AMSOM troops in Mogadishu Maj. Brigye Bahuko had denied that their forces targeted to Bakara market or the other districts in Mogadishu.

http://allafrica.com/stories/201002110410.html

Both sides are preparing for a major round of fighting in Mogadisu:

'We Have Completely Prepared Our Troops to Attack Regions in South' TFG Official

Mohamed Abdi Kalil, a deputy governor of the Transitional Federal Government of Somalia (TFG) of Gedo region has Friday said that they had completely prepared their forces to attack some regions in southern Somalia.

More government troops trained in the Somali region under the control of Ethiopian and with Ethiopian and Somali officers were reportedly reached at El-berde village in Gedio region recently.

The deputy governor who is currently the acting chief of the region Mr. Kalil said in an interview with Shabelle radio that their preparations was concluded talking more about their military movement in the region recently adding that their main aim was to seize several provinces in southern Somalia.

The officials of the transitional government said that their troops were continuing military governments in parts of the region stressing that they had close relations with neighboring countries.

"We welcome and welcome any troops or anyone against those where against the transitional government. We also have good collaboration with the Muslim clerics of Ahlu Sunna Waljama," said Mr. Kalil

"Our troops are working as national troops, but do not for other goals," he added.

The statement of the transitional Federal Government official comes as there had been military movement in southern regions of Somalia which mostly controlled by the Muslim fighters against the TFG.

http://allafrica.com/stories/201002120467.html

5 Killed in Mogadishu Clashes, Al Shabaab Declares Jihad

At least five people are killed and 15 others injured on Friday in fresh clashes that rocked parts of Somalia's restive capital Mogadishu, medics and witnesses said.

Witnesses said clashes erupted on the evening in Mogadishu's Shibis, Abdiasis and Bondhere neighbourhoods where several mortar shells fired by warring forces landed at residential areas, killing at least five civilians and injuring more than 35 others.

The shelling comes as newly deployed Al-Shabaab fighters take positions in the northern districts ahead of planned government offensives.

Almost the entire residents of those neighborhoods have vacated their homes for fear of being caught in the middle of the disarray.

The clashes come as top Al-Shabaab official declares jihad agsint the UN-backed Somali government and African Union troops.

Sheikh Mukhtar Robow Abu Mansur told hundreds of supporters gathered after Friday prayers in Nasrul-din mosque, located south of Mogadishu that his group has prepared well for the war and would launch as soon as possible.

"We have prepared our Mujahidiins for this war and we are urging you to join us in this religious undertaking because it's your religious responsibility, are you ready?" he asked the crowd who replied with 'Yes'.

The government, backed by AU troops has already announced its plans to take over the control of the country by force but has not yet stated when the full scaled onslaught will be launched.

http://allafrica.com/stories/201002120994.html

sorry for some errors, google-translated is not perfect as usually:

 Pirates in Somalia - why have them?

On October 20, 2009 media worldwide reported kidnapped by Somali pirates Chinese freighter in the Indian Ocean and threats 25 members of the crew of the vessel to be executed if the rescue is undertaken to release ship.

Such messages have become one of the most common news in the last 4-5 years. Aggressiveness and unpunished acts of modern pirates have shocked the world, and panic seized on international trade waterway between Europe and Africa and Asia. Piracy is reflected in insurance costs for ships, rising prices of the goods and the risk in the economies of the world already without hit by the global economic crisis. When announcing the results of piracy or even make movies about this phenomenon, very rarely analyze the causes leading to the development of piracy. We can read or hear the details of the dramatic kidnapping of people, vessels and wonder of the ransom, but hardly Somalis why bother resorting to such means of daylight haydutluk "as we say in our country. In this part of the modern pirates I've worked many years ago, even when there is no trace of the existence of pirates. And because I know very well indeed Somali and I have visited almost every corner of the country, I wish to make an attempt to expose the roots of this phenomenon, as I see them now.
Who could have imagined that in 2009 the world's governments would have made a new war on the pirates? While reading this blog British Royal Navy, supported by more than two dozen other nations of the United States to China, sailing to the Somali waters to win people we are still painting in my mind as opera villain with parrots on the shoulder, similar to those of Pirates of the Caribbean ". Soon this will lead the fleet battles with Somali sea vessels and even the Marine Corps will pursue the pirates on land and in one of the most worn out and collapsed sides of the earth. But behind this whole story is strange and outrageous things for which there is no writing and speaking. Those who glued the label governments' most dangerous threat of our time "have an unusual history and its justice, which is usually not mentioned.

Words of one of the pirates from the distant era of Caribbean piracy, shortly before he hanged are indicative: "What did it was to protect from premature death. I had life to deal with piracy.
In 1991 the government of Somalia collapsed. Population of around 9 million, then threatened to die of hunger universal. And just then the most powerful forces in the West see the world in this situation the great opportunity to steal food from the country and to dump their radioactive wastes into the seas of Somalia. Yes, indeed radioactive waste! Immediately after the government fell and began to appear mysterious European ships off the Somali coast around large barrels spill in the ocean. Somali coastal populations began to ill. At first began to appear strange skin rashes, vomiting and babies born with malformations. People begin to have mouth ulcers, unusual skin diseases, respiratory problems, bleeding. After the great tsunami in 2004 disposed of the waves on the shore hundreds of barrels flowing. It is clear that the population of the cities of Hobby & Benadir Indian Ocean suffering from radiation sickness and more than 300 patients die. He learned that in addition to radioactive wastes from drums and expire more compounds of lead, cadmium, and mercury. The traces of this crime lead to European hospitals and factories, which seem to have them available to the Italian Mafia that they "dispose" cheaper. And of course, after the ecological disaster that there was no cleaning, no compensation and no measures to protect Somalis. I can not mention that in 1998 the Italian newspaper Familia Italiana published several articles detailing the illicit dumping of tonnes of nuclear and toxic waste from the Italian-Swiss firm "Acher Partners" and the Italian agent for trash "Progress". These data are presented to the press and the European Parliament of the European Green Party. Posted is the agreement between the company and brokers of waste with representatives of the Somali military, who were then in power to accept 10 million tons of toxic waste in exchange for 80 million dollars. European companies have decided that they are much cheaper to get rid of their garbage ridiculous amount of approximately 2,5 U.S. dollars per tonne, while the landfilling of waste in Europe is worth somewhere around 1000 dollars per tonne. Mainstream media are full of terms like "piracy crisis," "anarchy on the seas" and others, but you saw somewhere mentioned something about "piracy of other rich nations? At the same time, other European ships began to plunder what is the biggest food resources of Somalia - the fish and other seafood. Ruined their own fish stocks through over-exploitation, they are focused on Somalis, because they "found a village without dogs. Illegal foreign trawlers every year steal fish, shrimp and lobster for the sum of 300 million dollars. Local fishermen were not able to catch fish already on the brink of survival, because the stocks in their waters are exhausted. In the last twenty years after the collapse of the Somali regime in 1991 the massive illegal piracy and unregulated fishing is responsible for the demolition and marine resources of Somalia. Helpless Somali fishermen began to organize for combat. Parties involved in such illegal practice are pirated from virtually all over Southern Europe, France, Spain, Greece, United Kingdom and others. Of course, none of these countries is quoted in the West as "failed state" despite their past and present practice of exploitation and theft of the weaker nations in the world. Whether we expect starving Somalis to stand passively on the beaches, to walk in European toxic waste and let us watch snatch their fish is served in restaurants in London, Paris and Rome? This is one of the root causes of the emergence of modern piracy. Somali pirates with their high-speed boats have started trying to attack those who disposed of waste or fish illegally or at least they fined them for these actions. And quickly realized that this is not very difficult.

  
Ships in the Gulf of Aden can be captured and small boats

Began to be called 'Volunteer Coast Guard, and ordinary Somalis have understood them. About 70% of the population is strongly supported by top piracy as a form of national defense. Of course, taking people hostage and vessels should not be justified, but some of the "defenders" are really gangsters, especially those who keep the supply of humanitarian World Food Program. One of the leaders of the pirates Sugile Ali said: "We do not consider ourselves sea bandits. We consider sea bandits those who illegally catch fish and throw toxic waste into our waters. " And one of the experts on Somali piracy Peter Lehr of Scotland's University Saint Andrew writes: "This is something like an exchange of resources. Somalis collect up to about $ 100 million per year from piracy ransom for ships, which are captured and European and Asian poachers earn about 300 million dollars per year of fish from Somali waters. "

  
Piracy already covers areas in the Indian Ocean.

According to Roger Middleton from the London Institute for unbundled analysis of world problems Chetham House,: "The problem with illegal fishing with overfishing in Somali waters is a very serious and affects feeding people in Somalia, and disposal of toxic waste will continue long to get sick people and after the civil war and piracy disappear. To lure fish to their traps, foreign trawlers using equipment prohibited by networks with very few openings and sophisticated underwater lighting systems. "Civilized nations" does not sufficiently respond to these crimes, but when Somali fishermen, some of them correspond to the breach of security in the transit corridor for approximately 20% of global supplies of oil, the answer is proper - to send warships.
The current economic situation of one of the poorest countries in the world, Somalia is tragic. According to the World Bank 73% of the Somali population lives with a daily income below $ 2 a million Somalis rely on food to survive on international aid. This, together with a very profitable hijacking ships attract significant numbers of young people towards piracy gangs, whose wealth and power often make them part of local social and economic elite. Here is what the ordinary citizen of the town of Garo Abdi Farah to BBC correspondent: "They have money, they have power and are becoming stronger with every passing day. They marry the most beautiful girls, build the biggest houses are new and luxury cars. After seeing the benefits of piracy, military chiefs of the genera are starting to help him, but the pirates - to share earnings with tribal heads. Illegal fishing and dumping of waste and supports the strengthening of corruption in the country because of war or local tribal leaders are paid to close their eyes or to issue false permits for such purposes.
Most pirates are Puntlend area in the northeastern part of the country. Estimates of the American organization "Global Security" now has at least five pirate gangs with a total of about 1000 contemporary armed pirates, but at least 10 000-15 000 Somalis help them ashore - as guardians of property in the workshops for repair of boats and ships, such as armed guards hired, etc.
According to a BBC report of the pirates may be divided into three broad categories: (1) local Somali fishers considered the brain of piracy operations because they have the knowledge and skills of sailing in these waters, (2) former military from Somali militia who have fought for local military leaders in the generic and tribal conflicts are now the muscular force of pirates, (3) technical experts who work with modern navigational equipment such as GPS. One of the most powerful Somali factions was called and the Sailors have a military structure with admirals and vice admiral and chief of financial operations.
Piracy affects, both positive and negative of the Somali population. Locals complain that the presence of so many armed men makes them feel insecure, and also a lot of money in circulation causes uncontrolled fluctuations in rates of exchange of money. Negative consequences for other concerns and increased consumption of alcohol and drug category. On the other hand are happy that the pirates would spend more in their impoverished cities and shops that create more jobs and opportunities that previously they were not. Whole villages are becoming truly blossoming cities, a local shop owners and their other residents, can now put earnings in the purchase of generators, enabling them to enjoy previously unthinkable convenience to have the whole day with electricity.
The majority of its modern pirates buy weapons in Yemen, but a significant portion comes from Mogadishu. It is believed that receive assistance from the Somali diaspora and refugees from around the world. Only in Canada now has about 200 000 Somali immigrants who send money, modern technical equipment and information to their relatives - pirates. Somali pirates today are not thinking more about preserving the natural environment of their country. Piracy will not prevent the disposal of waste. In 2008 there were 111 attacks include 42 successful pohishteniya ships. During the months of January and February 2009 there were ten times more for the same period. M. Only in March 2009 were realized almost daily attacks, a meter in April 2009, the number of attacks on e ships for only 15 days was 80, of which 21 were successful. Most of these attacks were in the Gulf of Aden, but the Somali pirates and increase the scope of its operations and have begun to attack ships far south all the way to the coast of Kenya in the Indian Ocean. To quickly notes the number receiving as ransom, the pirates use the most modern counting machines, the same technology as those of Western banks. Such counting machines they buy in Dubai or in Djibouti with the help of their other compatriots.
Military action against pirates doubt that it could liquidate under these conditions. Much more efficient way to overcome this modern disease is to help the country to establish a real government that can really control things. Until the government in Somalia chaos reigned and the country is torn halffeodal countries until quiet intertribal war and conflicts do not disarm the warring parties as the economy starts to recover, piracy will not disappear. An African proverb says: "When elephants fight each other, the grass is the one that suffers most. In the power struggle between ambition and resources vital to the people, those who suffer most are the ordinary Somalis, but as a side effect and will remain lesions of piracy.
The history of modern warfare against Somali piracy was best summarized by another pirate, who lived and died in the IV century BC He was captured and brought before Alexander the Great, who was asked "What do they mean for pirates to rule the seas. Pirates smiled and replied: "The same what you have in mind when fascinating world, but because I do with my little boat, I am called a robber, while when you do it with his mighty fleet, they call you Emperor" . And now once more the great imperial fleet flies to Somalia - but who is bandit?

South-West Violence:

In Somalia's South Western regeon Harakat al-Shabaab Mujahedeen and Hizbul Islam have been fighting for control since September, HSM has been making large gains and continues to do so. There are also tensions with Kenya.

Groups Fight Again Over Border Town
16 February 2010

At least five people were killed and several others injured when Hizbul Islam fighters engaged Al-Shabaab fighters in the Somali border town of Dhobley near the Kenyan border, officials and witnesses said.

The fighting erupted overnight as fighters loyal to Hizbul Islam's high ranking official Sheikh Ahmed Madobe attacked the town, but met with resistance from Al-Shabaab.

"The fighting was intense, we were worried but the situation has calmed down at the moment," said Ahmed Warsame, a resident.

Al-Shabaab officials said the town is still under their control after they successfully repelled the attackers.

The fighting is part of the heightening enmity between the armed Somali groups, which control much of the country's south and central.

Early this month, the same fighters from Hizbul Islam led by Sheikh Madobe attacked the town in a bid to recapture.

The clashes come as Al-Shabaab claims to have captured Diif, a border town near Kenya from Hizbul Islam.

http://allafrica.com/stories/201002170344.html

Al-Shabaab Seize Town Near Kenya Border

Somalia's Al-Shabaab insurgent claims that it has captured Somali border town of Diif near Kenya, after heavy fighting with their rivals Hizbul Islam.

Sheikh Hassan Yaqub, one of the heads of Al-Shabaab's Islamic administration in Jubba regions said his fighters attacked the town and forcible ejected the 'rulers'.

"Our fighters forcible emitted the town's rulers in heavy fighting. I can confirm that Diif is under our control," he was quoted as saying.

He added that his group has not suffered any casualty, contrary to reports that several fighters have been killed in the fighting.

The group has now taken the control of almost the entire Jubba regions from their once ally turn enemy Hizbul Islam, which its fighters are reportedly scattered across the border with some even reportedly crossing to neighboring Kenya.

http://allafrica.com/stories/201002161077.html

Fresh Fighting Kills Six, Wounds More Others in Southern Region
18 February 2010

Somalia — At least 6 people have been killed and more others wounded after heavy fighting between the Muslim fighters of Harakat Al-shabab Mujihideen and other rival forces flared up at Dobley town near the Somali border, witnesses told Shabelle radio on Thursday.

Locals said that the fighting broke out on Thursday morning as two well armored unites had attacked and entered two streets in the west of the town which reportedly continued for a while adding that it caused casualties of deaths and injuries.

Residents said that the sound of gunfire could be heard all directions in the town.

There is no comment from the warring sides so far, but independent reports covered Shabelle media network indicate that the armed forces who attacked the town had taken over most of control of Dobley town in Lower Jubba region.

Officials of Hizbul Islam organization who declined to disclose their names through the media said that some of Hizbul Islam forces were among those who assaulted the town today adding that they had had pasts of the town.

One of the residents in Dobley town told Shabelle radio that more troops of those who attacked the town could be seen at centre and police station of Dobley town pointing out that the fighters of Harkat Al-shabab Mujahideen had withdrawn form the town.

Dobley, is one of several towns that Harakat Al-shabab Mujahideen forces took over from Hizbul Islam organization recently after bitter fighting between the two sides in southern Somalia and the clash comes as there had been military movement in the region.

http://allafrica.com/stories/201002180847.html

With Hassan Turki joining HSM, HI is finished in the South.

Warring sides in Somalia have been preparing for an escalation of the conflict. The reason for this is a planned offensive by Somali government troops to retake the whole city of Mogadishu and strategic towns across South Somalia. This offensive comes as thousands of Somali troops return from being trained abroad. It seems however that the Al Shabaab is ready to counter the upcoming offensive and that this offensive will not be the end of the Somali civil war.



Summary

According to reports of multiple sources the Somali Transitional Federal Government is preparing a military offensive with the goal of retaking Mogadishu and other strategic towns in South Somalia. This offensive coincides with the return of Somali troops trained in Kenya, Ethiopia and Djibouti. African Union forces and possibly Ethiopian forces as well will back the government troops up in this offensive. Remaining troops in the Gedo region have already made movements preparing for an offensive. The Al Shabaab has moved its troops around in order to cover all possible approaches of the government offensive and is likely to bring the government troops to a halt by the time the new rainy season arrives.

It has been apparent for a while now that the Somali Transitional Federal Government has been preparing an offensive against the Al Shabaab rebels which control most of the country. At first it seemed this offensive would be mainly aimed at routing the Muslim rebels from the capital of Mogadishu, but recent movements by both sides had led to believe that a larger offensive in the likes of the Ethiopian invasion of 2007 would be in the makings. While first only government troops located in Mogadishu, backed by the African Union peacekeepers, seemed to be involved, it now seems that other parts of the country are being involved in the preparation of this offensive. The Ahla Sunna militia is ready in the Galgaduud region, other government troops are ready in the Gedo region and wile some government troops trained abroad have arrived in Mogadishu by ship, others have been located at the borders with Ethiopia and Kenya.

During the last few years the Somali government has sent troops abroad to receive training. These troops were trained in Kenya, Ethiopia and by French troops in Djibouti. Together these training programs mount up to thousands of fresh government troops, a huge influx of fighters on the side of the government. The lack of these troops may also clarify the resent inactivity by the Somali military. Now that they are set to return however, it seems that not all of these troops are sent to Mogadishu to expand security from there. Reports mention that troops trained in Ethiopia are located at the border between Ethiopia and Somalia, possibly to push through enemy terrain to take control of certain strategic locations in South Somalia. It is unclear whether the troops trained in Kenya, reportedly numbering about 1500, will return directly to Mogadishu by sea, or whether they may enter Somali territory by land. If the latter is the case it would be most logical that these troops would join remaining Somali government fighters in the Gedo region.

According to reports the Somali government troops trained in Ethiopia did not arrive alone. Ethiopian troops would supposedly have joined them. Ethiopia invaded Somalia in 2007 and after more than a year of hard fighting against Somali insurgents they withdrew. The troops currently accompanying the Somali trainees may be instructors or trainers that will continue the training process into the Somali government troops’ mission. They may however also be combat troops to bolster the Somali force. Ethiopia has previously been reported to have its military operate within Somalia near its border after its withdrawal in January 2009. It is unlikely however that Ethiopia would be willing to commit as strong a force as they did in 2007 and therefore unlikely that this Ethiopian involvement will topple the balance in favor of the Somali government troops.

Somali government troops that were already located within Southern Somalia have also been making preparations for the potential offensive. Remaining scattered troops in the Gedo region have reportedly been making military movements in preparation of an expansion of their territory. Gedo remains the only region outside Mogadishu where government troops are still active. They are however too few to pose a threat to nearby Al Shabaab and Hizb Islam fighters to the south, toward Kismaayo, and to the east, toward Baidoa. It is unlikely that these troops could force anything unless they are heavily reinforced by trainees coming from Ethiopia or Kenya which both border the Gedo region. Because of this these troops carry no significant meaning in the upcoming offensive, it is more important to take note of which positions trainees coming from bordering countries take within Somalia and in which direction they will plot their advance.

 

The Al Shabaab, on the other hand, is not ignorant to the government’s preparations for this offensive. Just like the government it has been stockpiling weapons and ammunitions to prepare for this escalation. Upon taking note of the government’s intention the Al Shabaab also moved numerous military units from Bay and Bakool regions to the outskirts of Mogadishu where they would have been in position to counter early attempts by the government to break out of their encirclement. When it became clear, however, that troops trained in Ethiopia may be entering the country from north of the Bay and Bakool regions the Al Shabaab were quick to withdraw their troops from Mogadishu to retake position around Baidoa and other strategic locations in Bay and Bakool. Military units stationed in Kismaayo and Merka were dispatched to take positions in the outskirts of Mogadishu. This could have already been the maneuver that allows the Al Shabaab to halt the government offensive. It is likely that if the trainees from Ethiopia push south, the government troops in Mogadishu, backed by African Union troops, would push southwest to Kismaayo. This idea is strengthened by reported movements by African Union forces earlier this year that led to believe they would advance toward Merka. This means that Al Shabaab may have already been able to adequately spread its forces to cover all possible approaches of the government offensive. At the same time the government sees its time running out, with only a month left till the end of this dry season the offensive will need to make speed in order to secure important strategic towns before the advance is halted by the arrival of the rainy season in May.

While the government prepares its military offensive the Al Shabaab has not been sitting quietly. The Bay and Bakool command has organized its own offensive, not one aimed at the expansion of territory, but at the hearts and minds of the Somali citizens. While Al Shabaab holds the military power in most of South Somalia it suffers from a lack of trust by the people. This popular support will remain a problem to install an Islamic state if Al Shabaab ever does succeed to overthrow the government. As part of this the Al Shabaab has taken position to protect the indigenous farmers of Somalia and has warned the United Nations World Food Program that it ought to buy its supplies from Somali farmers instead of importing it. This has recently escalated into Al Shabaab forces halting WFP shipments on their way to IDP camps in the Afgoye corridor. WFP can not count on protection from African Union forces for these shipments and is unlikely to go against the threats of physical harm against the organization and its employees. The lack of food aid to the Afgoye corridor could result in a disastrous humanitarian situation.

As sides gear up for the upcoming violence within Somalia there have also been moves from the outside to weaken the Muslim rebellion. The African Union has demanded a no-fly zone above Somalia and a blockade of Somali harbors used by Muslims in order to halt the smuggling of weapons. Two months ago the United Nations Security council also decided to place sanctions on Eritrea which has been accused of delivering weapons to Somali rebel groups. The sanctions include a weapons embargo on Eritrea, a travel ban on Eritrean political officials and military officers as well as freezing financial assets of political officials and military officials. Whether these sanctions will be able to halt the smuggling of weapons through Eritrea remains to be seen. More importantly it shows how Eritrea is now entering the league of rogue states that are opposed by all western nations also involved in supporting the Somali government.

The upcoming offensive by the Somali government is likely to once again escalate the armed conflict in Somalia when initiated, but it is unlikely to result in a victory of the government over Muslim rebels. Muslim rebels hold a strong position and have been able to identify potential courses of action to be taken by the government as well as take action to prevent these. Due to the short frame of time for the government to complete this offensive and the positions of both sides it is possible that the advance will bog down before different advances connect to each other and are able to sustain each other. Some territory may be won but the balance of power in South Somalia will likely still tip toward the Al Shabaab by the time the next rainy season sets in.
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gcreport.com

New mogadishu control map: