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ir
Private (سرباز عادى)
The debate between arrow vs shahab, sejil ect is a lenghthy one, but i think what would give us a good idea of who has more advantage in the missile department would be if we know how many arrow missiles israel have. We dont know exaclty how many missiles Iran has but we can estimate with all the missiles that have 1000km+ range, iran has a lower end of approx 400 (reports say that iran has capacity of building 75 missiles w/2000km range a year [http://www.ynetnews.com/articles/0,7340,L-3636744,00.html], shahab was introduced 2003, the rest was estm maths).

1)So if iran was to launch 150 in a full scale war, would israel have enough no. of arrows to stop the majority of these missiles (assuming it has v.high hit ratio), also we know arrow systems have six launchers?

2) and how many missiles need to hit israel for it to stop US and Israel to stop war and retreat? i.e. how many sites does iran need to hit for Israels economy to diminish to a point where continuing war would be impossibl?
“The greatest victory is that which requires no battle.”

“The supreme art of war is to subdue the enemy without fighting.”

“Supreme excellence consists of breaking the enemy's resistance without fighting.”

“To win one hundred victories in one hundred battles is not the acme of skill. To subdue the enemy without fighting is the acme of skill”

“The wise warrior avoids the battle.”

“Hence to fight and conquer in all your battles is not supreme excellence; supreme excellence consists in breaking the enemy's resistance without fighting.”

― Sun Tzu, The Art of War
Last Edit: July 17, 2012, 12:46:28 PM by V.eightsixty

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de
Private (سرباز عادى)
The question is how many missiles and launchers Iran has and how many of them have to be destroyed until it stops war and shooting at US and Zionist targets.

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Brother Skylark
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Master Sergeant (گروهبان)
On the other hand, not all of the warheads need to be intercepted. Only those that are on dangerous trajectory, hence the accuracy is extremely important factor when estimating what Iran could do with x pieces of missiles. I would guess that the Israeli Arrow missile stock is relatively limited considering the price of those, low three digit number, but that´s just my guess. They just cannot afford to have "hundreds" of them. In any case, ballistic missiles are pretty overrated for the real war starts, they are relatively inefficient when comparing to other conventional weapons. Single F15 sortie delievers more bang than one disposable ballistic missile although BMs are much better against certain hardened targets (while have much worse accuracy than aircraft carried weapons). Some people say that the alleged C.E.P. of 250 claimed by Iran´s best missiles is an overstatement, but if it is true, it still means that 50 % of the warheads won´t hit a circle that is 500 m wide. Against many essential targets it means that you need a lucky shot or multiple missiles to engage it effectively.
“I searched for God among the Christians and on the Cross and therein I found Him not. I went into the ancient temples of idolatry; no trace of Him was there. I entered the mountain cave of Hira and then went as far as Qandhar but God I found not. With set purpose I fared to the summit of Mount Caucasus and found there only 'anqa's habitation. Then I directed my search to the Kaaba, the resort of old and young; God was not there even. Turning to philosophy I inquired about him from ibn Sina but found Him not within his range. I fared then to the scene of the Prophet's experience of a great divine manifestation only a "two bow-lengths' distance from him" but God was not there even in that exalted court. Finally, I looked into my own heart and there I saw Him; He was nowhere else.”

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On the other hand, not all of the warheads need to be intercepted. Only those that are on dangerous trajectory, hence the accuracy is extremely important factor when estimating what Iran could do with x pieces of missiles...Some people say that the alleged C.E.P. of 250 claimed by Iran´s best missiles is an overstatement, but if it is true, it still means that 50 % of the warheads won´t hit a circle that is 500 m wide. Against many essential targets it means that you need a lucky shot or multiple missiles to engage it effectively.


Whether that is true or not, i think it would still hit israel, it wouldnt fall in the sea, so the israeli defence wont just sit there and they will have to intercept it, so if the arrows are used up to shield from the older shahab missiles, the newer shahab, ghadr110 and sejil can be used to hit the targets more accuratley. Also 150 missiles, atleast 50 are gonna hit the targets.

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In any case, ballistic missiles are pretty overrated for the real war starts, they are relatively inefficient when comparing to other conventional weapons. Single F15 sortie delievers more bang than one disposable ballistic missile although BMs are much better against certain hardened targets (while have much worse accuracy than aircraft carried weapons).

Extraneous to  the discussion.

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Brother Skylark
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Master Sergeant (گروهبان)
Hitting just "Israel" would typically mean "hitting dirt", hence no need for interception unless the warhead is maneuvering one.

What comes to the later remark: whatever:D

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Private (سرباز عادى)
Hitting just "Israel" would typically mean "hitting dirt", hence no need for interception unless the warhead is maneuvering one.

What comes to the later remark: whatever:D

I dont think Israel would know from miles off where the missiles would land, if they see a big missile like a shahab on their radar, they will intercept, i dont think they have the technology that tells them "hold on no need to intercept, that ones going no where". I dont know, do they?

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Brother Skylark
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Master Sergeant (گروهبان)
That tech was already in limited use in 1991 when Iraqi scuds were being intercepted by Patriots with varying levels of success. You know, those missiles... are ballistic missiles. The last advancements in this field are already at tactical level (Iron Dome and other similar systems).

I dont think Israel would know from miles off where the missiles would land, if they see a big missile like a shahab on their radar, they will intercept, i dont think they have the technology that tells them "hold on no need to intercept, that ones going no where". I dont know, do they?

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Private (سرباز عادى)
That tech was already in limited use in 1991 when Iraqi scuds were being intercepted by Patriots with varying levels of success. You know, those missiles... are ballistic missiles. The last advancements in this field are already at tactical level (Iron Dome and other similar systems).

If Israel has the technology mentioned above, the war if it does happen would be very much based on luck (how many missiles actually travel to the target) and how accurate the newer missiles of Iran are, and how many of those they have as suppose to the number of all the missiles in the iranian inventory.

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Brother Skylark
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Master Sergeant (گروهبان)
Like I said; accuracy of Iranian missiles is critical factor. If they can reliably strike pin point targets, hundred missiles can overcome Israeli defences.. if their missiles are still city busters, they need to launch that hundred at once. And they would still need luck to cause anything more than civilian casualties.

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Private (سرباز عادى)
Iran vs Israel one on one is impossible anyway so Irans task is even harder becasue the arabs, europe and america would help out aswell, espically when the missile shield is put in to place.

http://youtu.be/r3dpfY3SgJE

The commander here says Iran’s missiles are accurate, he says  it only has 20-30 meters deviation which is acceptable since the explosion is much bigger than that.

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