Author Topic: how Iran will close the strait of Hormuz? [farsi+pics] (Read 2195 times)

maydayfire · « **on:** December 15, 2011, 12:00:12 AM »

http://www.mashreghnews.ir/fa/news/84929/%D8%AC%D9%85%D9%87%D9%88%D8%B1%DB%8C-%D8%A7%D8%B3%D9%84%D8%A7%D9%85%DB%8C-%D8%A7%DB%8C%D8%B1%D8%A7%D9%86-%DA%86%DA%AF%D9%88%D9%86%D9%87-%D8%AA%D9%86%DA%AF%D9%87-%D9%87%D8%B1%D9%85%D8%B2-%D8%B1%D8%A7-%D8%AE%D9%88%D8%A7%D9%87%D8%AF-%D8%A8%D8%B3%D8%AA-%D8%AA%D8%B5%D8%A7%D9%88%DB%8C%D8%B1

aryaghiai · « **Reply #1 on:** December 15, 2011, 03:32:59 AM »

CLOSURE OF HORMUZ WAR SENERIO:
If Iran was to be attacked by the USA/Israhell, it would respond by attacking US bases, and even possibly all its allies bases in the ME region, including Israels Dimona nuclear reactor with advanced strategic missiles such as the Shahab series, all three variants 1/2, and 3 and Iran's most advanced missile the Fajr-3 (MIRV). With its Multiple Independent Reentry Vehicle capability gives it the ability of avoiding anti-missile Surface-to-air missiles, also the sejjil, Ghadr-110, and Ashoura missiles.

Iran's navy would respond by sealing off the Strait of Hormuz, which would wreak havoc on global oil markets. All enemy warships and merchant vessels would be targeted by Iran's mobile coastal anti-ship missiles. More than 40 percent of the world’s internationally traded oil, around 17 million barrels per day, passes through the strait. That includes more than fifty tankers daily, all under the watchful eyes of Iranian surveillance assets, including those on the island of Hormuz, together with four other Iranian islands (Lesser Tunb, Abu Musa, Bani Forur, and Sirri), are particularly important because they lie near the route that all vessels entering or leaving the Gulf use. Iran would also deploy its 17 extremely quiet diesel-electric coastal mini submarines to close off the strait of Hormuz by laying mines and conducting anti-shipping attacks. On April 14, 1988, the USS Samuel B. Roberts (FFG-58) struck an Iranian M-08/39 mine in the central Persian Gulf shipping lane, wounding 10 sailors. Then after the submarine after laying all its mines would descend to the maximum depth of the Persian Gulf, the gulf is overall very shallow, with a maximum depth of 90 meters and an average depth of 50 meters. there they would just wait silently for enemy ships to pass by and be engaged by its 2x533-millimeter torpedo tubes capable of firing the Hoot torpedo which is an Iranian supercavitation high-speed missile torpedo that travels at approximately 360 km/h, several times faster than a conventional torpedo. The Hoot is reverse engineered from the Russian VA-111 Shkval supercavitation torpedo which travels at the same speed. The U.S. Navy has a variety of means at its disposal to detect submerged submarines, but in shallow coastal waters, high ambient noise levels degrade the performance of sonar, making the job of detecting, locating, and identifying submarines very difficult. A war game conducted by the U.S. military in 2002, called Millennium Challenge, revealed a serious fleet vulnerability to well-coordinated attacks by ballisticand cruise missiles and swarming speedboats in littoral waters, causing “the worst [simulated] naval defeat since Pearl Harbor.” This response by Iran would result in the USA economy collapsing and forcing the USA to the negotiating table. So please do not underestimate Iran's capability to defend herself and to inflict heavy casualties on the so called "Undefeatable" USA military.

mamdali · « **Reply #2 on:** December 15, 2011, 03:50:24 AM »

Quote from: aryaghiai on December 15, 2011, 03:32:59 AM

CLOSURE OF HORMUZ WAR SENERIO:
If Iran was to be attacked by the USA/Israhell, it would respond by attacking US bases, and even possibly all its allies bases in the ME region, including Israels Dimona nuclear reactor with advanced strategic missiles such as the Shahab series, all three variants 1/2, and 3 and Iran's most advanced missile the Fajr-3 (MIRV). With its Multiple Independent Reentry Vehicle capability gives it the ability of avoiding anti-missile Surface-to-air missiles, also the sejjil, Ghadr-110, and Ashoura missiles.

Iran's navy would respond by sealing off the Strait of Hormuz, which would wreak havoc on global oil markets. All enemy warships and merchant vessels would be targeted by Iran's mobile coastal anti-ship missiles. More than 40 percent of the world’s internationally traded oil, around 17 million barrels per day, passes through the strait. That includes more than fifty tankers daily, all under the watchful eyes of Iranian surveillance assets, including those on the island of Hormuz, together with four other Iranian islands (Lesser Tunb, Abu Musa, Bani Forur, and Sirri), are particularly important because they lie near the route that all vessels entering or leaving the Gulf use. Iran would also deploy its 17 extremely quiet diesel-electric coastal mini submarines to close off the strait of Hormuz by laying mines and conducting anti-shipping attacks. On April 14, 1988, the USS Samuel B. Roberts (FFG-58) struck an Iranian M-08/39 mine in the central Persian Gulf shipping lane, wounding 10 sailors. Then after the submarine after laying all its mines would descend to the maximum depth of the Persian Gulf, the gulf is overall very shallow, with a maximum depth of 90 meters and an average depth of 50 meters. there they would just wait silently for enemy ships to pass by and be engaged by its 2x533-millimeter torpedo tubes capable of firing the Hoot torpedo which is an Iranian supercavitation high-speed missile torpedo that travels at approximately 360 km/h, several times faster than a conventional torpedo. The Hoot is reverse engineered from the Russian VA-111 Shkval supercavitation torpedo which travels at the same speed. The U.S. Navy has a variety of means at its disposal to detect submerged submarines, but in shallow coastal waters, high ambient noise levels degrade the performance of sonar, making the job of detecting, locating, and identifying submarines very difficult. A war game conducted by the U.S. military in 2002, called Millennium Challenge, revealed a serious fleet vulnerability to well-coordinated attacks by ballisticand cruise missiles and swarming speedboats in littoral waters, causing “the worst [simulated] naval defeat since Pearl Harbor.” This response by Iran would result in the USA economy collapsing and forcing the USA to the negotiating table. So please do not underestimate Iran's capability to defend herself and to inflict heavy casualties on the so called "Undefeatable" USA military.

I would like to add and reiterate, if a massive attack happens, I predict the IRI will detonate a nuclear device within a few days and break out. Israel will also be targeted massively with conventional missiles. Iran will also level oil production centers and foreign bases in the Gulf with missile barrages. In this scenario, 'closing' the straits will be redundant--there won't be any oil to pass through anyway.

Because of the above possibilities, war will never happen. The UAV that waas recently commandeered is a clear sign that the US is following a 'cold war' strategy not one of 'hot war'.

Mamdali

Pasdar · « **Reply #3 on:** December 15, 2011, 07:54:29 AM »

If an attack happens, it would happen at night and has been planned for years. Also, the US economy will be permanently doomed. They would not attack alone either. If they manage to bring iran to its knees in the first few waves of attack, they will continue to weaken iran in repeated air attacks for years to come. To prevent this from happening iran must be prepared to go all the way. In case of any attack, Iran must whip back as though there is no tomorrow, it also must immediately pull out of the NPT and start assembling nuclear explosives.

If Iran gives a weak reaction to any attack, we're doomed.

reza18 · « **Reply #4 on:** December 15, 2011, 10:55:35 AM »

I say the moment the US openly declares war, Iran must out out of the NPT and detonate the bomb...North Korea detonated the bomb the the US couldn't do a damn thing..They always whine and whine!!!

Moon2017 · « **Reply #5 on:** December 15, 2011, 03:13:26 PM »

Iran should never use any Nuclear weapon until it is fired upon by one. The political ramification of using a NW is huge. Therefore i think any talk of NW is out of question. However, i agree that even a thought of closure of the straight of Hormouz will disrupt the Oil markets. However, dont forget that the west has now got hold of Libyan Oil and Saudi Arabia will divert its oil to the Red Sea. However, the short term economic and personnel cost to the US will be huge, especially at the time of US and the west economic crisis; any war will be a burden on the US economy.
In reality i do not think there will be a war and straight of Hormouz closure and other proxy war (including cold war) protocols will be followed by the US.

reza18 · « **Reply #6 on:** December 15, 2011, 03:51:45 PM »

Quote

"Iran should never use any Nuclear weapon until it is fired upon by one. The political ramification of using a NW is huge. Therefore i think any talk of NW is out of question. However, i agree that even a thought of closure of the straight of Hormouz will disrupt the Oil markets. However, dont forget that the west has now got hold of Libyan Oil and Saudi Arabia will divert its oil to the Red Sea. However, the short term economic and personnel cost to the US will be huge, especially at the time of US and the west economic crisis; any war will be a burden on the US economy.
In reality i do not think there will be a war and straight of Hormouz closure and other proxy war (including cold war) protocols will be followed by the US. "

Moon, believe me..The Libyan theater isn't finished yet...The mainstream media wants you to believe it's all over and everythings fine but that's far from the truth.Remember this war was mostly waged in the media from the beginning to the end.Things have only just begun..Remember, the rebels weren't a coherent bunch..They were all funded by different interst bodies and they all wanted Qaddafi gone.

I found out about why Iran supported the revolution against Qaddafi yesterday on a Presstv documentary..Apparently, the Arab separatist group in Khuzestan, Iran were receiving support from both Mubarak of Egypt Qaddafi after Sadam was deposed..I hope that help???

shiageorgia · « **Reply #7 on:** December 15, 2011, 06:42:23 PM »

Iran should not go out of NPT and resort to such weapons as nuclear, biological and chemical. As Leader Khamenei issued fatwa, these weapons are "haram", i.e. forbidden.

Instead, Iran must drag US and other nuclear countries toward non nuclear world, using international public opinion. This will be chance for iran and other islamic powers to eliminate US and Usrael regimes.

reza18 · « **Reply #8 on:** December 15, 2011, 07:02:58 PM »

Quote

Instead, Iran must drag US and other nuclear countries toward non nuclear world, using international public opinion. This will be chance for iran and other islamic powers to eliminate US and Usrael regimes.

I wish I was as optimistic as you are..But unfortunately, the US, Usrael, Russia, China, India, Pakistan, UK, France will NOT abandon their weapons..Never..They spend money every year to make it better...

jalal · « **Reply #9 on:** December 15, 2011, 11:54:42 PM »

If and that is a big if.
If Iran get attacked, It will be with same shock and awe that we have witnessed already in Iraq, it will not be by Israel and it won't be only against suspected nuclear sites and U.S.A and England and may be France will be the usual suspect and accomplices.
They will try to neutralize Iran and reduce its ability to strike back, Iran main objective will be to withstand first wave of attack and to to be able to strike back and do as much damage on their air forces and naval assets and forward bases.
In such scenario, all the bets are off, Fatwa or no Fatwa, Iran will be going nuclear because the question has been changed to
(TO BE OR NOT TO BE) and even this fact has not escaped the American defense secretary.
So all and all I do not see an attack to be eminent as a lot of people are suggesting after the Dron landing, may be it has to get worst before it get better, may be it take one episode of like Cuban missile crises to remind U.S. that living and containing Iran is better alternative and less costly than going to war with.

Pasdar · « **Reply #10 on:** December 16, 2011, 08:02:52 AM »

The drone above Iranian airspace was a major breach of Iran's sovereignty. If I were in charge in Iran, I would already order the creation of nuclear weapons.

reza18 · « **Reply #11 on:** December 16, 2011, 10:34:10 AM »

Quote

The drone above Iranian airspace was a major breach of Iran's sovereignty. If I were in charge in Iran, I would already order the creation of nuclear weapons.

Right on...The US is in no mood for "normalization"..They clearly want a confrontation and nothing else..Iran must have the bomb (my opinion)

MO_SOBOH · « **Reply #12 on:** December 16, 2011, 12:29:41 PM »

if they attack Iran what makes them think they will get away wit it that easily!!!

Ich · « **Reply #13 on:** December 16, 2011, 01:56:47 PM »

My opinion:

The drone-invasion was a complot by the republican party who use their connections at CIA, let them direct the drone into Iran. The plan was: Drone into Iran, Iran shoot it down, us-troops charge into Iran to rescue the rest of the drone, Iran counters -> WAR.

But Iran land the drone and so no one knows where it is ^^ They still urge Obomba to search and rescue the drone, but he didnt. So the war-plan turns into lose.

Catsoo · « **Reply #14 on:** December 16, 2011, 02:38:44 PM »

I have a problem with the report on availability of Sejil for naval targets. That does not seem to be probable!

Also, this is the first time I see the following launcher for Iranian made rockets (not missiles).

Catsoo

mamdali · « **Reply #15 on:** December 16, 2011, 03:24:46 PM »

To add to this and on the subject of the mentioned fatwa we need to be careful to consider:

- We do not know the details of the fatwa. If anyone has the actual verified content please share.
- There is a world of difference between using NW and developing an NW deterrent which may end up constraining their usage AND saving lives.
- There are strong implications Iran has other WMD programs such as chemical and bio weapons. Focus on NW type WMDs is probably not a logical thing to do.

At the end, when it comes to this fatwa, we have to be very very careful of it's interpretation, even if we had access to its actual and verified content.

Mamdali

the8march · « **Reply #16 on:** December 16, 2011, 06:16:15 PM »

I think closing Hormuz does not need a single shot. Iran needs just to announce that Hormuz is closed until a further notice.

reza18 · « **Reply #17 on:** December 16, 2011, 07:21:00 PM »

Quote

I think closing Hormuz does not need a single shot. Iran needs just to announce that Hormuz is closed until a further notice.

:lol:LOL..Classic!!! I love that

Even the announcement alone will send oil prices flying like a rocket...

AK · « **Reply #18 on:** December 17, 2011, 12:50:57 AM »

Quote from: reza18 on December 16, 2011, 07:21:00 PM

:lol:LOL..Classic!!! I love that Even the announcement alone will send oil prices flying like a rocket...

Actually, rockets will fly like oil prices!

shiageorgia · « **Reply #19 on:** December 17, 2011, 06:17:25 PM »

Quote from: reza18 on December 15, 2011, 07:02:58 PM

I wish I was as optimistic as you are..But unfortunately, the US, Usrael, Russia, China, India, Pakistan, UK, France will NOT abandon their weapons..Never..They spend money every year to make it better...

So what? Iran don't need to enter this club, most of which are arrogant powers or corrupt countries. Iran is not an empire, but a leader of movement, which must bring new world order, justice and peace in the world.
Empires must be cornered so that they to have at first reduce NW stocks, and finally abandon them. It is a long term strategy.

Simple Bubba · « **Reply #20 on:** April 30, 2012, 05:58:44 AM »

Quote from: Catsoo on December 16, 2011, 02:38:44 PM

I have a problem with the report on availability of Sejil for naval targets. That does not seem to be probable!

Also, this is the first time I see the following launcher for Iranian made rockets (not missiles).

Catsoo

arent those Fajr-5s ....
4 tubes 333mm rockets with a 75km range... usually deployed with ASCM units...

Fajr 3 and 5s working with C-802 and CSSC-3 launchers... rockets and mines drive shipping into engagement areas of ASCM... least that is what I understand is part of the doctrine working with small boats, and all the other systems to mass and overwhelm targets

Lord of the Rings · « **Reply #21 on:** April 30, 2012, 02:09:34 PM »

Persian gulf missile will be deadly in large numbers.
I wish Iran tests them out on the wahabis, cause they are getting cocky recently.